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Thursday, January 7, 2010
- Dispatches from countries that do not exist. "I had my leg propped up on a dark wooden desk and was wincing at the sting of a vigorous alcohol-swabbing by the health minister himself. I was not accustomed to such personalized government service. Fake countries have to try harder, I thought." Outstanding.
- Remember Calvinball? Meet something similar, but more sinister: Terrorball. This game has only two rules: (1) the game continues until there are no terrorists left, and (2) if the terrorists manage to kill, injure or seriously frighten anyone, they win.
- Finally, the chart of the day: the accuracy of economic forecasts from the past decade (or not). Unfortunately, this little graph doesn't tell you who'se forecasts are being plotted, what the forecast time-periods were, or even what the Y-axis represents (GDP, presumably) - so its credibility is suspect. Nevertheless, it vizualizes an important point about market forecasters (or forecasters of almost any kind): they're usually wrong. Forecasts huddle around the median, reality does not.
So the next time a professional economist, government official or IPE blogger offers you a specific forecast - do yourself a favour and ignore them. (...then go read this book!)
Labels: Arsenal, economia, international affairs, markets, sport
