lifestyle leader

-Is the localization of supply chains history repeating (see: early 20th century)?

-The 'democratization' of the human genome?

-Is the US really more dependent on China?

-Who loves nuclear energy?

-Is Berlusconi the world's biggest party crasher (you might remember his G20 performance)?

-Will Arsenal win the Prem?

-Last week, Michael Skapinker wrote a piece in the FT entitled 'Britain's years of progress were no illusion.' It remembers 1970s Britain and asks us to retain a little perspective on the tremendous progress of the past three decades (in Britain and beyond).

-The NYT looks at the likely response of the US credit card industry to regulatory reform.

-Brazil and China will begin using their own currencies in official trade transactions, accelerating an intended shift away from the dollar by two of the world's (emerging) economic powers.

-How the Russian military (and pop stars?) sees the country's energy diplomacy with Europe, set to song and dance. Funny, and frighteningly true.

-Say it aint so, Arsene.

Awesome blogs by "really smart people" (pointer from Free Exchange)

The Buy-American mentality in action: a Belgian-owned, Canadian-made pipe is ripped out of the ground and replaced by an identical one that was made in the U.S. of A. Serves 'em right for making bilingual pipes, anyway.

The podcast of a CFR round-table entitled "The Financial Crisis and Global Financial and Monetary Cooperation"

Boeing's arial drones are now available for rent.

Taking stock at Arsenal

We haven't had an Arsenal post in a while. My deepest apologies to all our Gooners out there. What better way to make up for lost time than with a Champions League goal for the ages.

Adebayor's second half stunner, fed by a sublime 40-yard pass from Fabregas, defied the laws of physics, salvaged a key away goal for an Arsenal side that was completely "out-Arsenaled" by the attacking Villareal, and positioned the Gunners to reach the Champions League semifinals for the first time since 2006.

Enjoy. (0:55 mark begins the replays, wait for it)

IPE Journal regulars know we love Arsenal, and are probably all too familiar with my soft spot for the injured Eduardo. Well, the Croatian international took the pitch this evening and, in an inspirational performance, scored twice in 67 minutes to lead the Gunners into the 5th round of the FA Cup. The brace comes almost 12 months after the striker nearly lost his leg in an horrific injury at Birmingham City.

We talk a lot about sports, fashion, Japanese robotics and booze around here not just because they are personal interests, but to provide a break from the constant doom and gloom in the global political economy. It sounds cliche, but, now more than ever, we need our distractions, our little points of inspiration and excitement.

Eduardo's remarkable performance was exactly that.

(photo: Getty Images)

-The Bolivarian dictator who cried "coup" is at it again. Venezuelans go to the polls on Sunday in Chavez's second try at a constitutional amendment removing term limits.

-The Project for Excellence in Journalism profiles "The New Washington Press Corps". It finds that while the "traditional" media's footprint in the US capital has shrunk dramatically, niche media (small and targeted) and foreign correspondents have increased their presence. The Washington bureau of Mother Jones is now roughly the same size as Time's, while Al Jazeera now rivals CBS.

-Dubai is fastly becoming one of the biggest casualties of the credit crunch. The real estate market has collapsed and foreign workers (approx. 90% of the emirate's labor force) are being laid off en masse. The NYT looks at one aspect of the deteriorating economic situation: foreign professionals fleeing the debt and luxury vehicles they accumulated during the boom.

-Eduardo came on for Croatia last night in a friendly v. Romania, and Arsenal hearts were, if only for a moment, lifted.

Politique
-On Tuesday, Barack Obama became the 44th President of the United States. Or was it Wednesday? He swiftly moved to roll back the Bush years through executive orders on Guantanamo, interrogation, and foreign assistance. The President also named two high profile envoys to the middle east and south Asia, a signal that the State Department and America's "soft power" will lead US foreign policy.

-Israel completed its withdrawal from Gaza, days after both Israel and Hamas declared "unilateral" ceasefires. The death toll from the conflict is estimated at 1,300 Palestinians and 13 Israelis. In related news, the BBC came under intense pressure following its refusal to broadcast a Gaza aid appeal by the Disasters & Emergency Committee.

-The Prime Minister of Iceland, Geir Haarde, called a March general election and will not seek reelection. The Daily Mail (and many others) incorrectly labeled Haarde's government the "first in the world to be effectively brought down by the credit crunch." As Dave noted in December, Belgium's government was the first to fall under pressure directly stemming from the financial crisis.

Economia
-Negotiations over the US stimulus package intensified as Obama met with leaders from both parties to shape a consensus. The stimulus package will undoubtedly pass, but what will it look like: will it hit $1 trillion (many economists believe it must to be effective)? how large are the tax cuts (will Obama bend to his own party by limiting this political manoeuvre)? how many Republicans will ultimately be on board?

-Spain and Portugal were hit with downgrades this week, and the eurozone looks to be on the verge of a serious crisis of confidence. Following its second bail out of the banking sector and the Pound's sharp decline, is the UK in the firing line? Does Britain=Iceland?

-In a written statement to the Senate Finance Committee, US Treasury Secretary designate Timothy Geithner accused China of "manipulating" the renminbi. In a measured response, the Chinese government said Geithner's comments were "out of keeping with the facts", would undermine the global effort to combat the financial crisis, and could fuel protectionism. In other China news, year-on-year GDP growth slowed to 6.8% in the 4th quarter, the slowest pace in 7 years.

The Rest
-Holders Pompey crash out of the FA Cup, Arsenal are held at last year's finalists Cardiff City, and the Merseyside derby ends in a draw, setting up a 4th round replay. In other Prem news, Kaka's megadeal to Man City fell through and a Kuwaiti consortium's proposed takeover of Liverpool has reportedly collapsed.

-In other sporting news, the disturbing balkanization of grand slam tennis.

-Affirming Dave's "political economy theory of fashion", Milan fashion week reflected the economic downturn, with the suit notably absent from many collections.

-The 81st Academy Awards nominations were announced in Los Angeles. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button lead the pack with 13 nominations, followed by Slumdog Millionaire with 10.

-Blackberry addicts the world over are scrambling to get their hands on the "Barackberry", after the US President finally wins his battle to stay connected in the White House. The NSA-enhanced device will have two "modes": one for personal contact with a tiny group of family and friends, another for official communications with a small circle of advisors and officials.

Politique
-As the world limped into the new year, IPE Journal looked back at the defining political stories of 2008.

-Israel's Gaza operation entered its second week. A ground invasion is now underway to topple the Hamas regime and prevent further rocket attacks on Israel. The UN Security Council failed to reach a consensus position this weekend, despite an humanitarian situation characterized as "desperate."

-Czech President Vaclav Klaus assumed the rotating EU Presidency this week. After a widely praised and robust Sarkozy presidency, Brussels watchers are anxious that the "prickly" Klaus will undermine EU consensus on the financial crisis, climate change and, well, the EU itself.

-The Chinese government moved to silence the signatories of Charter 08, a "wide-ranging blueprint for peaceful political, legal and economic reform in China." The crackdown reflects the deep anxiety carried by the Chinese leadership into 2009.

Economia
-Entering 2009 with much economic and financial uncertainty, IPE Journal looked back at the economic stories of 2008.

-Another price dispute between Russia and Ukraine resulted in the suspension of natural gas deliveries to Ukraine, with reports of growing shortages from Turkey to the Czech Republic. Both Moscow and Kiev are courting European support for their position in the dispute.

-Sterling neared Euro parity for the first time, a milestone that might spark a much deeper sterling sell-off.

The Rest
-Now more than ever, we need distractions. IPE Journal looked back at the cultural, sporting and down right random things that captured our attention in 2008.

-In the FA Cup, Arsenal go forward on a Van Persie brace, while Man City crashes out in spectacular fashion. Notable 4th round ties: ManU v. Spurs, Liverpool v. Everton.

-40 drunken passengers run "riot" on Cuba bound flight from Gatwick. "Drunk", "Gatwick" and "riot" are three words I am not surprised to find in the same sentence.

-The Obama's arrived in Washington...let the parties, galas and Republican exodus begin.

IPE Journal looks back at the cultural, sporting and down right random things that diverted our attention from economic Armageddon in 2008. In other words, The Rest...

-The 2008 Olympic Games were much more than China's coming out party. The world stood in awe at the Opening Ceremonies, Michael Phelps became the greatest Olympian of modern times and China's athletes topped the gold medal table. 2008 was a year of stark contrasts for China: the tragedy of the Sichuan earthquake, tainted milk, and exposure of the shortcomings of China's economic miracle v. the scale, triumph and symbolism of the games, land reform and progress with Taiwan. 2009 promises to be an interesting year.

-In the Prem, Arsenal collapsed following a very bad day in Birmingham, throwing away the 07-08 title. They began the 08-09 season in disarray, and placed their future on the young shoulders of Cesc Fabregas, who, naturally, was immediately lost for four months with ruptured knee ligaments. ManU and Chelsea provided a cardiac finish to both the Prem and Champions League final in Moscow, with SAF's men taking the double.

-Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and an epic Wimbledon final, considered by many the greatest tennis match of all time.

-The Year in Japanese innovation: robots that feed you, bionic legs and a trumpet playing robot joins the Cincinnati Pops. According to the International Federation of Robotics, robot use will increase substantially over the next few years, for combat, labour and personal uses. The Guardian identifies Japan as the world leader in robotic labour density (25 per 10,000 workers).

-In what will surely go down as man's historic victory over the animal kingdom, monkey waiters hit Japan.

-Contemporary art market boom/bust: The contemporary art market is an interesting barometer for investor sentiment (the Mayfair, not main street, investor) and Banksy provides a perfect case study. In October 2007, 10 prints by the London-based street artist sold at auction for a whopping ₤546,000. Fast forward to September 2008, and the five Banksy pieces at auction in London went unsold. In fact, two thirds of the items in the Loyd and Turnbull contemporary art auction were withdrawn. (Editor's note- my two Banksy prints were purchased in Covent Garden for 30 quid. Beat that.)

-Finally, in a year of great You Tube moments (Bush shoe thrower, Brown's messiah slip), this one takes the cake, both for humour and IPE symbolism:

Politique
-A cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe worsens as Mugabe stays silent, then denies, then blames the Brits. Meanwhile, Ghana brings some hope to African democracy.
-EU leaders burned the midnight oil to reach consensus on key climate change and fiscal stimulus proposals. Deep divisions remained over the extent of coordinated fiscal measures at the national level. Concessions made to Ireland in return for second Lisbon Treaty referendum, but leaders are careful not to instigate a backlash in the UK.
-US auto bailout dies in the Senate, as Bush is forced to reconsider the dedication of TARP money to the carmakers.
Economia
-Ecuador defaults, as President Correa brands debt "illegitimate" and foreign creditors "monsters".
-How low can Treasuries yields go?
-The WTO admits defeat for 2008.
The Rest
-In the Prem, Arsenal stumble out of the title race, Liverpool and Chelsea underwhelm, and Villa break the top 4.
-Fresh off their hostile takeover of Citi, Somali pirates express interest a certain vacant US Senate seat.
-US film industry awards season kicks off with Golden Globes nominations, New York and L.A. film critics awards.
-Bush gets two "steps" closer to retirement:

Politique
-US President-elect Barack Obama unveils details of his "21st century New Deal". The Economic Recovery Plan is preliminarily based on 5 pillars: energy, roads and bridges, schools, broadband, and electronic medical records. Many, including prominent members of his own party, are becoming increasingly frustrated with his "there is only one president at a time" line, as the sitting President appears to have checked out while Rome burns.
-The terrorist attacks on Mumbai end, the Indian investigation expands, and at least 29 people die from a car bomb in the Pakistani city of Peshwara. Blame for the attacks has focused on Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (the likely perpetrators), the Indian government (early warnings, poor response, failure to hold Pakistan accountable), and the Pakistani regime (failure/inability to address sources of terrorism and militancy within its borders).
-A deliciously intriguing affair in the British House of Commons has ignited a fierce debate over Parliamentary independence, opposition politics, and police powers. Meanwhile, Canada has its own legislative controversy to deal with (find Dave's take here).

Economia
-The US learned it has been in recession since December 2007 (something everyone but this guy has been well aware of) and lost 533,000 jobs in November, the largest jobs decline in 34 years.
-Angela Merkel grew increasingly isolated in Europe as French President Sarkozy unveiled a €26bn stimulus package. UK Prime Minister Brown and Sarkozy will meet in London on Monday to renew their call for a coordinated European stimulus.
-An historic week in European central banking: BoE cuts 100 basis points to 2.0% (lowest level since 1951), ECB goes with 75 basis points to 2.5% (its largest single cut ever), and Sweden slashes a record 175 basis points to 2.0%.

The Rest
-In the Prem: Arsenal continue form following famous win at Stamford Bridge, Liverpool stay top, and ManU and Spurs on track for Carling Cup final. In Europe: Cristiano Ronaldo wins Ballon d'Or, reveals he was "an inch away" from being a Gunner in 2003.
-This week in Japanese innovation: omelets with the Motoman SDA10.
-"Experienced bandits" steal €85mn in luxury jewels from Harry Winston store in Paris. According to Reuters, the heist occurred almost a year to the day of a similar $16mn robbery at the store.

Since its Friday, some light fare to take your mind off the fall of Rome:

-Arsene Wenger, obviously having read IPE Journal last night, has reportedly stripped William Gallas of his captaincy. Furthermore, Gallas will not travel with the club to Manchester City this weekend. There is intense speculation over who will take up the arm band, with Gael Clichy, Kolo Toure and Manuel Almunia the frontrunners. Some believe that when Cesc Fabregas returns from suspension next week, he could assume the captaincy for the remainder of the season.

This is an extremely positive (and necessary) move by Wenger, and will hopefully provide the jolt Arsenal needs to make a strong second-half/European run. My vote goes to Fab, the club's talisman and future.

Despite my futile job search, a global financial crisis, and the lingering feeling that maybe the whole "grad school in London" adventure was poorly timed, I have a much bigger worry on my mind: Arsenal.

Politique
-G20 leaders arrived in Washington for a summit that had been hailed Bretton Woods II. With President-elect Obama avoiding the summit, and sharp differences between world leaders on the reforms needed to repair the international financial and economic systems, the summit ends like so many before it- with a consensus on principles, little coordinated action, and an agreement to meet again. Declaration text here.

-A regional war looms as the situation in the DRC deteriorates. African peacekeepers are impotent and declared targets by Nkunda, the number of foreign troops/mercenaries in the country grows by the day, and southern African leaders are threatening full-scale military involvement. The NYT looks at the role of minerals in the DRC's history of conflict.

-The EU agreed to restart talks on a strategic partnership agreement with Russia following an EU/Russian summit at Nice. Russia hasn't met the EU conditions set out as a prerequisite to talks following the conflict in Georgia, and it seems only Lithuania has the spine to say so.

-Iraq's cabinet approves new security pact with the US. The agreement extends US troop mandate through 2011.

Economia
-Paulson shocks congress with plan to spend remaining TARP money on capital injections into troubled institutions and companies and consumer spending. The Treasury will no longer purchase illiquid assets, and congressmen/women of both parties are screaming "bait and switch". Paulson deputy Kashkari testified before an angry House, with Rep. Elijah Cummings asking him, "Is Kashkari a Chump?"

-Treasury v. FDIC. FDIC's Bair wants to directly assist 1.5 million homeowners in the US, while Paulson resists a (*cough-cough*) "government spending program"- Paulson believes that his actions are "investments".

-Is a sterling run imminent? That's what George Osborne, Tory shadow chancellor, implied this week in criticizing Gordon Brown's fiscal plans. Osborne's political career is likely done. Sterling has hit a 6-year low against the dollar at $1.49, and Simon Derrick at BoNY Mellon believes sterling's position is now worse than Sept. 1992.

-Eurozone enters its first official recession.

The Rest
-India celebrates first lunar landing.

-This week in Japanese innovation: a robot that feeds you, and bionic legs.

-Arsenal's Prem title run is dead in the water.

-Gordon Brown: control freak.