lifestyle leader

In keeping with our year-end extravaganza:
Maclean's, a Canadian newsweekly, has compiled an excellent gallery of photographs from the past year. Some of the most powerful:

• Beijing Olympics opening ceremony
• Close call in Afghanistan
• Volcano erupts in Chile
• The true cost in Georgia

IPE Journal looks back at the political events, people and trends that defined our world in 2008.

- The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sets in motion a paradigm shift in global power and authority. The state reoccupied the commanding heights of the global economy through stimulus packages, banking nationalizations and automotive bailouts. The IMF regained relevance, and political fortunes were turned in response to the crisis. The G20 replaced the G8 (but for how long?), and the WTO sadly threw in the towel for 2008.

- Barack Obama was elected the 44th President of the United States in one of the largest electoral landslides in decades. He is the first African-American elected to the highest office. He quickly established a "team of rivals" cabinet, bringing together the best, brightest and (slightly) bipartisan to implement his foreign policy and economic agenda. This agenda will likely be defined by what has been called a "21st century New Deal".

- Russia invaded and briefly occupied much of Georgia. The conflict reasserted Russian influence in its "near abroad", exposed EU divisions over Russian relations and raised tensions over NATO expansion and US missile defense in Eastern Europe. It also exposed the real power dynamics in Russia, with Putin effectively orchestrating, commanding and negotiating throughout the conflict. However, by the end of 2008, the financial crisis would for the first time raise questions over Putin's rule as the country was forced to devalue the rouble and ripples of unrest began to sprout up.

- Parts of Africa continue their descent into hell. Kenya erupts, Somalia struggles, and Darfur is a humanitarian disaster. Fighting has resumed in the DRC with Rwandan support, and Mugabe has maintained his iron grip on power, squeezing Zimbabwe dry in the process. Mbeki left office in South Africa, paving the way for Zuma in 2009. The world now looks to Ghana in the final days of 2008, and hopes for a victory for African democracy.

- The Treaty of Lisbon, an attempt to streamline and bolster the EU, is rejected by Irish voters, temporarily killing the process. While certainly a setback for further European integration, Europhiles promise to continue holding referendums until the voters get it "right." A December summit laid out the blueprint/compromise for Lisbon's revival in 2009, and, for possibly the first time in EU history, ended with universal praise of a French president.

- Attacks in Mumbai: as of yet, not a defining geopolitical event since Pakistan and India worked hard to prevent the situation from escalating. Nevertheless, this is a potential touching-off point for the nuclear rivals in 2009. It also might (by design??) divert Pakistani attention away from fighting terrorism in the northwest tribal areas, and reignite violence in Kashmir. The implications of Mumbai are vast, and potentially destabilizing for the entire world.

- Israel, in response to repeated rocket attacks, and in advance of national elections, pounds Hamas and infrastructure in Gaza. The year's final week produced one its most explosive events, as the fighting in Gaza risks wider political instability and a humanitarian crisis in the territory. Many analysts believe that Israel's overwhelming aerial assault is an attempt to dictate a new truce with Hamas, but its military establishment is signalling that the shock and awe may be only the first phase in a wider operation aimed at removing Hamas from power.

***Co-written by Dave Hart

He'll settle for any number of body parts.

(for original Putin threat, see here)

Politique
-G20 leaders arrived in Washington for a summit that had been hailed Bretton Woods II. With President-elect Obama avoiding the summit, and sharp differences between world leaders on the reforms needed to repair the international financial and economic systems, the summit ends like so many before it- with a consensus on principles, little coordinated action, and an agreement to meet again. Declaration text here.

-A regional war looms as the situation in the DRC deteriorates. African peacekeepers are impotent and declared targets by Nkunda, the number of foreign troops/mercenaries in the country grows by the day, and southern African leaders are threatening full-scale military involvement. The NYT looks at the role of minerals in the DRC's history of conflict.

-The EU agreed to restart talks on a strategic partnership agreement with Russia following an EU/Russian summit at Nice. Russia hasn't met the EU conditions set out as a prerequisite to talks following the conflict in Georgia, and it seems only Lithuania has the spine to say so.

-Iraq's cabinet approves new security pact with the US. The agreement extends US troop mandate through 2011.

Economia
-Paulson shocks congress with plan to spend remaining TARP money on capital injections into troubled institutions and companies and consumer spending. The Treasury will no longer purchase illiquid assets, and congressmen/women of both parties are screaming "bait and switch". Paulson deputy Kashkari testified before an angry House, with Rep. Elijah Cummings asking him, "Is Kashkari a Chump?"

-Treasury v. FDIC. FDIC's Bair wants to directly assist 1.5 million homeowners in the US, while Paulson resists a (*cough-cough*) "government spending program"- Paulson believes that his actions are "investments".

-Is a sterling run imminent? That's what George Osborne, Tory shadow chancellor, implied this week in criticizing Gordon Brown's fiscal plans. Osborne's political career is likely done. Sterling has hit a 6-year low against the dollar at $1.49, and Simon Derrick at BoNY Mellon believes sterling's position is now worse than Sept. 1992.

-Eurozone enters its first official recession.

The Rest
-India celebrates first lunar landing.

-This week in Japanese innovation: a robot that feeds you, and bionic legs.

-Arsenal's Prem title run is dead in the water.

-Gordon Brown: control freak.

The Times of London has published the leaked details of a conversation between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow on August 12th. Sarkozy had flown to Moscow to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Georgia, and Putin made his ultimate goal clear. The following is an excerpt from the Times article:

Mr Sarkozy was aware from intelligence reports that the Russian army was aiming to overthrow Mr Saakashvili and install a puppet government. He told Mr Putin that the world would not accept this, according to Mr Levitte, Mr Sarkozy's foreign policy chief, who was in the Kremlin for the talks.

"I am going to hang Saakashvili by the balls," Mr Putin replied.

Mr Sarkozy responded: "Hang him?"

"Why not? The Americans hanged Saddam Hussein," said Mr Putin.

Mr Sarkozy replied, using the familiar "tu": "Yes but do you want to end up like (President) Bush?" Mr Putin was briefly lost for words, then replied: "Ah, you have scored a point there."

Wow. It is rare that the private conversations of heads of state are leaked to the public, and really suprising that the French would do so just days before Sarkozy chairs an EU-Russian summit in Nice (ironically, the scene of one of France's biggest diplomatic blunders of the past decade- see EC Nice Summit of 2000). There is little utility in angering/embarassing the Russians ahead of a vital strategic meeting, and the leak can probably be chalked up to Sarko's super ego.