Thursday, November 13, 2008

The Times of London has published the leaked details of a conversation between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow on August 12th. Sarkozy had flown to Moscow to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Georgia, and Putin made his ultimate goal clear. The following is an excerpt from the Times article:

Mr Sarkozy was aware from intelligence reports that the Russian army was aiming to overthrow Mr Saakashvili and install a puppet government. He told Mr Putin that the world would not accept this, according to Mr Levitte, Mr Sarkozy's foreign policy chief, who was in the Kremlin for the talks.

"I am going to hang Saakashvili by the balls," Mr Putin replied.

Mr Sarkozy responded: "Hang him?"

"Why not? The Americans hanged Saddam Hussein," said Mr Putin.

Mr Sarkozy replied, using the familiar "tu": "Yes but do you want to end up like (President) Bush?" Mr Putin was briefly lost for words, then replied: "Ah, you have scored a point there."

Wow. It is rare that the private conversations of heads of state are leaked to the public, and really suprising that the French would do so just days before Sarkozy chairs an EU-Russian summit in Nice (ironically, the scene of one of France's biggest diplomatic blunders of the past decade- see EC Nice Summit of 2000). There is little utility in angering/embarassing the Russians ahead of a vital strategic meeting, and the leak can probably be chalked up to Sarko's super ego.

Back in August, I argued that Saakashvili would not survive the conflict. I thought that Russia's intentions were clear, and was both wrong and surprised when the Georgian President survived. The credit for this may very well go to Sarko. But if this conversation highlights anything, it is that the situation in Georgia is fragile. I seriously doubt that Putin's feelings have changed, and given the evidence that Georgia may have been more of an agressor in the conflict than it claimed, it will take very little for the Russian Prime Minister to finish the job.

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