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Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Rory Doyle writes in a personal capacity. The views expressed are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of AIM or its investors.
A couple of weeks ago I accepted a position in the hedge fund industry, which limits my ability to write publicly on the topics and issues we cover here at IPE Journal. Moving forward I will be largely absent from these pages, continuing as sort of a co-editor-at-large, very much a compliment to Dave's incredible output and insight.
I won't wax poetic or bore you with some farewell treatise on the state of the international economy, but I will say that it has been a truly rewarding experience to share this platform with someone I consider the smartest guy in the room. We've been lucky to have a forum to share our views over an historic period of time, and I leave grateful to all of you readers, from Singapore to Seattle, for giving us your attention.
The scope of my contributions will be decidedly narrow and sporadic, and accompanied by the little disclaimer you see above. But this is the start of a long goodbye; one that will hopefully stretch well into the future.
Labels: blogging
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
I have been mulling a thorough post on the developing Eurozone sovereign debt crisis for the past two days, thinking of ways I could adequately present the necessary context, theoretical arguments and implications to the global economy. But in reading through Simon Johnson's coverage of the developments in Europe, I realized something: I can't possibly deliver a better analysis than he has. So instead of trying in vain to duplicate his efforts, I point you towards The Baseline Scenario:
-Johnson's first look at the situation asked whether US policymakers, specifically Tim Geithner, understood the risks posed by a European sovereign debt crisis to America and the global economy
-Over the weekend, Johnson looked at the likelihood of IMF involvement in Greece, the irrelevance of the G7 and the implications of European policymakers' dithering
-Today, Johnson, Peter Boone and James Kwak released their Revised Baseline Scenario for 2010, which includes a great treatment of the Eurozone's sovereign debt woes and its broader implications. This is a long post, but I recommend reading it in full for their 2010 outlook.
Markets rallied yesterday on signs the European big boys would step in and back Greece. ECB President Trichet rushed back from a trip abroad and there were rumors circulating that Germany, the only Eurozone country that really has the balance sheet and power to step in at this point, was constructing a 'firewall' of sorts that would stem any contagion from the Greek crisis. But Germany later denied any plans were in the works, which rattled investors again.
I suspect we'll get some official statements out of the ECB and Commission by the end of the day, hopefully laying out some concrete steps to resolve the situation. But if you believe Simon Johnson, it may all be too late.
Labels: blogging, Euro, financial crisis, sovereign debt
Friday, January 22, 2010
One voice is notably absent, to me at least, from the debate over the Obama banking sector reforms: Willem Buiter's. If ever there was a moment for Buiter's unrivaled insight, especially on two topics he wrote so passionately about- bloated banks and central banking, it is now.
For those unfamiliar with Buiter, he's not dead. Rather, he assumed the Chief Economist position at Citigroup this month (he also remains at a little school Dave and I know something about), a move that forced him to end his influential blog at the FT called Maverecon. While he assured his readers that he would continue to speak out on the important issues of the day, he recognized his new position would in truth limit his ability to do so. Buiter once called his new employer 'a conglomeration of worst-practice from across the financial spectrum,' and I'm sure he sees his current role as a step towards fixing that. So it is not surprising that he is silent on an issue that affects the very foundation of the firm he now serves.
But it's a real shame.
Labels: blogging
Thursday, January 7, 2010
We've just added a visitor map widget (over there --->) that plots the IP addresses of visitors to the blog on a map of the world. Cool! Sure beats doing it manually.
It will start updating shortly, so tell your friends.
Labels: blogging
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
The list of quality economic blogs that are consistently worth reading is a suprisingly short one. Sadly, that list just got shorter: Willem Buiter is bringing Maverecon to a close when he takes up his new job as chief economist at Citigroup in January.
Buiter will be working for a firm that he labelled, in April 2009, "a conglomeration of worst-practice from across the financial spectrum.” Felix Salmon suggests that Citigroup has hired the outspoken economist figuring that "it would be better to have him inside the tent pissing out." Well said.
Buiter has worn many hats: a professor at LSE, a former chief economist at the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, a former external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and most recently, a consultant to international organizations and companies like Goldman Sachs. As a blogger, however, he was a constant source of sharp, biting commentary on all things political economy (as well as the occasional lesson in Dutch history). His posts were long, wordy, technical, blunt, and dripping with arrogance. But those who were willing to stick with them gained access to an uncommon level of insight. Above all, he could make for a hell of a quote - and quote him we did, many times, on these pages.
Buiter explains that he will continue to speak out on economic matters and may even start a new blog, "[b]ut it won't be Maverecon because it can't be Maverecon." That's a big loss for the rest of us.
Labels: blogging
Sunday, August 2, 2009
I will be on holidays this week, far far away from computers and world events. Posting will be light.
Have a great week.
Labels: blogging
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Where's Rory?
-Dave Hart, 'A Call for Reader Feedback'
Hi friends. I have indeed been deficient in upholding my duty to provide the yearning masses with the kind of sophisticated insights and mind-blowing revelations they've come to expect from IPE Journal. I have quite a viable excuse (cue Dave's inner monologue), but for the sake of argument lets pretend I have been locked in my basement toiling over a masterful blog-post, tentatively called "The normative implications of Pinochet's pension reforms: deconstructing the post-war regulatory state." Ok, not really.
Anyway, my lack of consistency is nothing new; its something I have lacked since we began this little project. As Dave noted in his previous post, we've had periods of boom and bust since last August, but to Dave's enormous credit his busts have been more like blips. Nobody is more impressed by his commitment than I am.
My problem has been a fundamental one: a lack of incentives. Don't get me wrong: we started this site with nothing more in mind than providing a minor, thoughtful contribution to the debate on where our global economy is headed, and I think we have largely achieved that. Sometimes we get sidetracked by booze or expenses, though in our defense a) booze is the prism through which many of us deconstruct the world around us, and b) when such a scandal occurs in Africa it is called 'corruption', but when it occurs on the bank of the Thames it is a 'betrayal of trust.'
But without a more tangible incentive, even the noblest of pursuits can falter under the weight of competing alternatives, and I have found it difficult to sustain my contribution to the blog in a year defined by a gruelling job search and nomadic-like existence. It is not that I have lacked the time, I've had quiet a bit of that over the past 12 months. Rather, I have gone through periods of profound intellectual disillusionment, the circumstances of which I'll spare. That has been deeply disappointing and my sporadic work here has been but one consequence.
But that has turned over the past month or so, and I expect my consistency here to do so as well. Shorter, more frequent posts may be one result, but that probably serves our readers better anyway. And it helps when your partner is a rock star at this. Dave carries the torch well.
Catharsis complete, thanks for sticking with us this past year. You should see our childlike joy at getting an email from a reader. That's what this is all about.
Labels: blogging
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
As we approach this blog's 1-year anniversary, it's time to take a few steps back from our little project to take stock. Like any relationship, this one has had its ups and downs. Long time readers will have noticed that posting has slowed down in the last couple of months, partly due to the summer weather and the various distractions that come with it. That is temporary, as I've become too attached to this thing to stop writing, regardless of whether anyone is reading or not. But now is your chance to provide feedback and guide us towards material that you think would be interesting to see tackled.
So have at it, folks: what would you like to see discussed on this blog?
To get your thinking-juices flowing, here are some suggestions:
- US debt and the future of the dollar
- The impact of the financial crisis on sport
- More posts on the political economy of alcohol (a personal favourite)
- The future of the Bretton Woods system
- Posts about a particular country/region
- The British MP expenses scandal (just kidding!)
You may also be asking yourself: what happened to including nifty pictures in your posts? or why did you pick such a boring name for your blog? or where's Rory? These are all reasonable questions. Some even have reasonable answers. I'm open to all questions.
So this is your opportunity to influence the content of the blog - don't miss out! Feel free to use the comments or contact us using the blog email address (to your right -->).
Labels: blogging
Friday, July 3, 2009
The newest addition to our blogroll is The Baseline Scenario written by (among others) the former chief economist of the IMF, Simon Johnson. I recognize we're a bit late to the game on this one, but do check it out all the same.
Labels: blogging
Monday, May 11, 2009
Awesome blogs by "really smart people" (pointer from Free Exchange)
The Buy-American mentality in action: a Belgian-owned, Canadian-made pipe is ripped out of the ground and replaced by an identical one that was made in the U.S. of A. Serves 'em right for making bilingual pipes, anyway.
The podcast of a CFR round-table entitled "The Financial Crisis and Global Financial and Monetary Cooperation"
Boeing's arial drones are now available for rent.
Taking stock at Arsenal
Labels: Arsenal, blogging, Financial Architecture, links, protectionism, sport
Monday, April 13, 2009
Or at least, that's what Robert Cottrell at The Browser thinks. This post struck home in a number of ways, but I especially liked the final paragraph.
Labels: blogging
Friday, April 3, 2009
Is where IPE Journal ranks on Wikio's list of the most widely referenced blogs on the internet. In other words: we're kind of a big deal.
But if you think that's sad, imagine how you'd feel if you ran one of the 41,798 blogs that ranked lower than we did.
Labels: blogging
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
I began my "Quick hits and pinks picks: G20 edition" post below with a little friendly fire: newspapers are still the go-to, best source of coverage for events like the G20, regardless of what the blogosphere would have you believe. How convenient that I should read Tony Barber's Brussels Blog at FT.com shortly thereafter.
While breaking the news of a brilliant bit of political gamesmanship by UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown at the EU Summit of March 19-20, Barber eloquently expressed a similar sentiment. He calls newspapers the "first draft of history", while blogs have the special responsibility of providing the "second version", as he has done with his Brown story.
Barber managed to state clearly what I often struggle to properly express: that newspapers still matter. While clearly a medium in decline, its collective reputation, access and quality of reporting is still unmatched. Noone can consistently break the news like print media, and I include the websites of these publications in that category (the convergence of print/online staff, resources and editorial coverage has accelerated in recent years). You can find better analysis and insight in the blogosphere (like at, say...IPE Journal). But until the official press corps' in world capitals incorporate more non-traditional sources (perhaps President Obama calling on Sam Stein of The Huffington Post at his first press conference was a breakthrough), newspapers will continue to craft the "first-draft" history.
And I may be too nostalgic, but there is still something so familiar, romantic even, about holding my Financial Times in the morning. It appeals to your senses in a way digital media cannot. I come from a family of newspaper and radio men and women, and I still cling to these media, while embracing the progress of the digital age. I hope this delicate balance is sustainable, but I fear it is not.
Labels: blogging
The larger-than-life Willem Buiter (by the way, has any columnist/blogger been elevated higher by their coverage of the financial crisis than Buiter?) wins the award for "Best post title of the week" with his hilarious, and timely, "Please torch my car."
Attacking the "tax incentives for new cars" schemes being adopted in many countries, and more specifically the marketing-as-environmentalism justification for the schemes, he says,
"This artificial shortening of the economic life of a car seems nuts. It’s worse than getting paid to dig holes and fill them again. It’s like being paid to burn down your house to encourage the residential construction industry. In Iceland, where economic calamity has befallen a population that was until the autumn of 2008 among the richest in the world, people torch their SUVs for the insurance money. Iceland doesn’t produce any cars, let alone SUVs, so this does not do their GDP any good, but think of the global externalities! Perhaps the G20 could propose the world-wide legalisation and subsidisation of the willful destruction of consumer durables, residential property and infrastructure (schools, hospitals, prisons etc.) as a global stabilisation policy measure."
Labels: blogging
Saturday, March 14, 2009
A former classmate of mine has started a blog on all things politics and economics, Global Axioms - have yourself a gander. He's currently living in Istanbul and so should be able to offer a different perspective on things, particularly on issues in the Middle East region.
Labels: blogging
Thursday, March 12, 2009
I have a new blog called Pastel Still Life. It brings together the many things I find interesting. You should visit it often. Its a movement.
Labels: blogging
Monday, March 9, 2009
The Economist has launched four new blogs from its most prominent columnists: Lexington, Bagehot, Charlemagne and Buttonwood.
As well as offering opinions on their usual subjects, Charlemagne also looks at the quirks of living in the euro-bubble and Bagehot at British life, art and football. Buttonwood reflects on the people behind the markets and Lexington mulls all the finds interesting, significant, quirky and irritating.
Check em out (but stick around here for a while first)!
Labels: blogging
Monday, December 8, 2008
-John Thain wants his 2008 bonus, reportedly $10m. Two ways to look at this: 1) his social and political thermometers are broken, or 2) he deserves it. Despite all of his misleading statements on the health of Merrill Lynch and role in its eventual acquisition by Bank of America, he did secure the sale of the firm at $28 a share. Remember what Bear went for? My take: I recognize point 2, but agree with point 1. He's insane for asking, and his compensation committee would be crazier to approve. UPDATE: Apparently, someone told him this whole bonus demand was a bad idea, because he no longer wants it.
-The FT has an interesting article on today's elections in Quebec. The economy trumps sovereignty, a good sign for Liberals.
-The Pulitzer Prizes have expanded to cover online only publications. IPE Journal submits itself for consideration.
-Petroleum Intelligence Weekly has released its influential annual rankings of the world's top oil companies. The report highlights the increasingly marginalized position of the traditional private oil majors, and growing global market dominance of majority state-owned companies. This trend towards nationalization and state control of increasingly scarce resources has a number of powerful implications.
Labels: blogging, Canada, commodities, credit crunch, executive compensation, financial crisis, OIL
Saturday, November 29, 2008
We were dismayed to learn that our comments section had only been available to users with registered Google accounts. That has been changed, so everyone is now free to comment as they see fit.
Apologies.
Labels: blogging
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Willem Buiter - LSE prof and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member - explains why he writes his blog for the FT:
There are minor vanity/ego rents to having people read what I write, and my consulting income may receive an indeterminate boost from these activities. But all that is secondary to my need to write. I don’t know something unless I have written it down.I agree completely. Too bad I can't guarantee the opposite relationship: just because I've written it down...
Labels: blogging