Monday, February 15, 2010

I'm about a third of the way through Charles Kindleberger's Manias, Panics, and Crashes - a historical examination of financial crises over the past few centuries. It's an interesting read, and Kindleberger regularly sprinkles in some real gems. For instance, in discussing some of the causes of over-zealous investment during a financial bubble, he opines that "There is nothing so disturbing to one's well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich." The same can be said of our financial institutions.

Here's another: "For historians, each event is unique. Economics, however, maintains that forces in society and nature behave in repetitive ways. History is particular; economics is general."

Kindleberger tries to weave his way through the particulars to arrive at some general conclusions about crises, and it's sobering stuff. We're used to hearing about the Great Depression, but things pretty much drop off for anything prior. But let me tell you, there were crises galore in the 18th and 19th centuries. The worst part? Although the particulars differ, they tend to bear remarkable similarities to our latest meltdown.

In fact, many of the debates back then echo to the debates being waged today. Writing in the post-WWII period, Chicago economist Henry Simon was arguing that it was not the money supply, not government policy, but rather the instability of credit markets that created a fragile financial system: "He was concerned about the speculative temper of the community and the ease with which short-term nonbank borrowing and lending made society vulnerable to changes in business confidence." Again, the details have changed, but the collapse in confidence in uninsured non-bank lending was a major component of the credit crunch that fed our latest meltdown.

It's something to ponder as practitioners, regulators and policymakers pick up their socks and attempt to try again. How long before the lessons from mortgage-backed securities fade away and the unintended consequences of the latest policy decisions set the stage for the next crisis?

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