Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Niall Ferguson and his ego arrived in town yesterday as part of a speaking and promotional tour for his new book, the Ascent of Money. Last week Rory linked to the Harvard professor's PBS documentary of the same name as required watching for anyone looking for a good summary of our current financial crisis and some historical context (it seems that non-Americans will have to search a little harder to find the video).

I've read bits of Ferguson's other historical books (Colossus and Empire) and have found myself very skeptical about his theories. But I agree with Rory: the Ascent of Money documentary is something I would highly recommend. It's a very digestible way to become familiar with the main elements of the crisis (subprime mortages, derivatives, bond markets) without... well, bothering to read about them.

I particularly liked that he finished off the video with a discussion of the problem of macroeconomic imbalances. My only quibble is that Ferguson has decided to nickname the issue "Chimerica," after the two biggest players in the drama. The trouble is, global macroeconomic imbalances really are global - this Chimerica thing risks ignoring the role played by Japan, East Asia, the Gulf region and other countries in creating the imbalances dilemma. This China-centric view is reminiscent of the (exaggerated) fears about Japan in the 1980s and isn't healthy for the broader public debate. Global macroeconomic imbalances may not be as catchy as Chimerica, but it's more accurate - and it still sounds better than AbuSaudiChimericapan.

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Thanks to Jeff for the pointer. Also: There will be blood - Ferguson predicts an increase in violent conflict as a result of the financial collapse.

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