lifestyle leader

According to the Interior Minister, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been reelected by a landslide 62% to 34% over rival Mir Hossein Mousavi, confirmed by the Supreme Leader this morning.

This result is really hard to believe.

According to Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group, Ahmadinejad's rural political base totals somewhere in the range of 10-15 million people. And while Mousavi's Obama-like appeal to the apathetic youth vote has been widely heralded in the international press (with the expectation of a higher voter turnout), less has been said of Ahmadinejad's inspiring campaign. The very heated, very visible nature of this election boosted participation across the political spectrum, including amongst the incumbent's supporters. So the fact that his share expanded in yesterday's polls is unsurprising.

But with a reported turnout over 85% of eligible voters, around 50 million, Ahmadinejad simply cannot secure 60% of the vote without a massive political shift or widespread fraud. The numbers just don't add up. Iran's large, sophisticated middle class was polling overwhelmingly in favor of Mousavi, and when you add a presumably higher youth turnout, getting to 60% seems like an improbable feat in a referendum on the incumbent's rule.

Alshin Molavi of the New America Foundation makes an interesting point. He says that the Supreme Leader's hand is, naturally, all over the results, but not because he necessarily disapproved of Mousavi. Reformists are elected quite often in Iran, and no one takes office without the Supreme Leader's implicit approval. Rather, he thinks Khamenei looked over Mousavi's shoulder and feared what he saw: young educated men, an internationally-minded middle-class, women, business. It was less the candidate, more the door into Iranian politics he seemed to be opening that threatened Khamenei, a door that this morning looks to have been slammed shut.

It is widely being reported that Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the far-right Israel Our Home party, will become the next foreign minister of Israel after signing an agreement to join Likud's governing coalition.

Meanwhile in Iran, former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami announced he was withdrawing from June's presidential election.

-From the Times of London: Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is claiming that he was President Barack Obama's first call to a foreign leader. How does he know? Well, Obama told him so. I was highly critical of then President-elect Obama's silence on Israel's operations in Gaza, so I will be the first to say that, if Abbas is correct, Obama has made a very welcome statement on his commitment to the peace process. Apparently, Obama's first round of foreign calls were to middle east leaders (Egypt, Jordan, Israel), signalling to many that the new US prez is serious about renewed US leadership in the region. On a related matter, in case anyone doubted the political considerations driving Israel's Gaza offensive, the pullout from Gaza was completed today, Obama's first day in office.

-Portugal became the third eurozone country in two weeks to be hit with a downgrade. S&P cut the country's rating to AA minus. According to the FT, the cost of insuring Portugese government bonds through credit default swaps has risen to a record high. The government quickly labeled the downgrade as "unreasonable." In the past week, S&P has issued reviews on 10 highly rated western countries, leading Wolfgang Munchau to ask"what if" a eurozone economy defaulted?

-Foreign Policy has published the Think Tank Index, developed by the IR Department at the University of Pennsylvania. It is advertised as the "first comprehensive ranking of the world’s top think tanks, based on a worldwide survey of hundreds of scholars and experts." Below, the top 5 US and non-US think tanks:

US--> 1. Brookings Institution, 2. Council on Foreign Relations, 3. Carnegie Endowement for International Peace, 4. Rand Corporation, 5. Heritage Foundation

Non-US--> 1. Chatham House, 2. International Institute for Strategic Studies, 3. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 4. Overseas Development Institute, 5. Centre for European Policy Studies

The seventh day of Israel's air offensive on Hamas and infrastructure in Gaza has passed, and still no word from Barack Obama. A transition spokesperson, in response to growing calls for Obama to speak up, released a statement that recycles the President-elect's typical response to issues he wants to avoid, "President-elect Obama is closely monitoring global events, including the situation in Gaza, but there is one president at a time."

This Boilerplate statement is a cop-out, and the press needs to start calling Obama on his selective respect for Bush's non-existent presidential authority. If there is only one president at a time, why is Obama heading to Capitol Hill on Monday to negotiate with lawmakers on his economic agenda? Last I checked, his inauguration is not until the 20th.

I am on Obama's case because Gaza affects us all, and could matter as much to his presidency as his stimulus plan. The Israeli/Palestinian conflict is central to explaining global terrorism and middle east instability. As Bush quickly learned (remember his 2000 campaign? international disengagement, education, compassionate conservatism), international events often occupy presidencies, and if Obama is serious about tackling international terrorism, the peace process, or the potential for wider instability in the middle east, it would serve him well to start engaging the Israeli/Palestinian conflict now.

Let me be clear that I am not calling for Obama to speak out against Israel's action (silence is often tacit approval in politics). I do not advocate a particular side in this conflict; I advocate a solution. And I do not pretend to know what that would be. I simply know that the status quo hasn't solved anything.

Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich defied everyone today in announcing his intention to appoint Roland Burris to the Senate seat vacated by the President-elect. Obama quickly released a statement condemning the Governor's move, and reiterated his position that the US Senate leadership should not seat the appointee. The drama over Blagojevich is good television, and his Senate appointment may have very real constitutional questions, but in the end the episode matters little beyond the Land of Lincoln.

Thus, the real significance lies in what Obama did not say today. The fourth day of Israel's bombing of Gaza passed without a single statement by the future US president. The quartet, UN, EU and much of the rest of the world have called for a ceasefire, truce or general humanitarian consideration. As Jonathan Wright reports for Reuters, Obama's silence is disheartening for many, especially in the Arab world, who thought his presidency would bring a renewed American commitment to the peace process. His foreign policy team is stacked with strong supporters of Israel (Rahm Emanuel, Hillary Clinton), and it is unlikely that he will expend the political capital that a serious push towards a Palestinian state would require in his first term. Remember, it's the economy stupid, now more than ever.

I have heard a cynical viewpoint that I find quite interesting. It goes like this: Obama has placed people like Hillary Clinton in key foreign policy positions as cover for a peace settlement, one that would inevitably require large Israeli concessions (1967 borders, Palestinian state capital in East Jerusalem). With big Israel boosters leading the negotiations, Obama would be partially shielded from the Israeli lobby backlash.

Whatever his intentions, Obama should say something. Bush has checked out, and the world can't wait another month for American leadership, especially on Gaza.

While IPE Journal got a makeover...

Politique
-The US National Intelligence Council's 2025 project releases Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. The report announces the end of the "unipolar moment", and predicts declining American influence and power. While the US will remain the preeminent power, the rise of the BRICs will reintroduce a multipolar world. Other defining trends: increasing competition for scarce resources, greater West-East transfer of wealth, and broader Middle East destabilization.

-World trade is grappling with a tricky little pirate problem, as Saudi joins a NATO anti-piracy fleet and calls for a global response to this "terrorism".

-The IAEA confirms speculation that the Syrian structure bombed by Israel in 2007 contained nuclear material. Syria swiftly calls for end to probe.

-Obama announces plans to create 2.5 million jobs through massive fiscal stimulus, government projects. His cabinet takes shape: Geithner for Treasury, Clinton at State (the Guardian broke her acceptance plans, beating US media to story), and reported negotiations for Gates to remain at Defense.

Economia
-Citi executives huddle in New York with government officials to discuss the bank's survival. The Dow Jones Industrial average closed below 8,000 this week, the first time since March 2003.

-Japan falls into recession, ending longest postwar expansion.

-Pakistan formally requests $7.6bn IMF standby loan, agrees to economic reforms including fiscal deficit reduction.

The Rest
-Scientists now believe that massive glaciers may lie beneath the rocky Martian surface, and humanity is step closer to confirming life beyond Earth.

-Arsenal drop Gallas, ManU lose Berbatov for big Villa clash, and Liverpool/Chelsea stay top of Prem

-Vanity Fair releases its International Best Dressed List. This year's list includes Michelle Obama, Kate Middleton, and Kanye West. West drops a full preview of new album, 808s and Heartbreak.