lifestyle leader

According to the Interior Minister, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been reelected by a landslide 62% to 34% over rival Mir Hossein Mousavi, confirmed by the Supreme Leader this morning.

This result is really hard to believe.

According to Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group, Ahmadinejad's rural political base totals somewhere in the range of 10-15 million people. And while Mousavi's Obama-like appeal to the apathetic youth vote has been widely heralded in the international press (with the expectation of a higher voter turnout), less has been said of Ahmadinejad's inspiring campaign. The very heated, very visible nature of this election boosted participation across the political spectrum, including amongst the incumbent's supporters. So the fact that his share expanded in yesterday's polls is unsurprising.

But with a reported turnout over 85% of eligible voters, around 50 million, Ahmadinejad simply cannot secure 60% of the vote without a massive political shift or widespread fraud. The numbers just don't add up. Iran's large, sophisticated middle class was polling overwhelmingly in favor of Mousavi, and when you add a presumably higher youth turnout, getting to 60% seems like an improbable feat in a referendum on the incumbent's rule.

Alshin Molavi of the New America Foundation makes an interesting point. He says that the Supreme Leader's hand is, naturally, all over the results, but not because he necessarily disapproved of Mousavi. Reformists are elected quite often in Iran, and no one takes office without the Supreme Leader's implicit approval. Rather, he thinks Khamenei looked over Mousavi's shoulder and feared what he saw: young educated men, an internationally-minded middle-class, women, business. It was less the candidate, more the door into Iranian politics he seemed to be opening that threatened Khamenei, a door that this morning looks to have been slammed shut.