Wednesday, March 4, 2009

These days, the banking industry is not what you might call a "high growth" sector, particularly in Europe and the United States. And yet, there may be some employment opportunities for the free range bankers that have recently been let loose by Wall Street upon an unsuspecting public. As Martin Wolf pointed out this morning, there is a very real chance that US federal government agencies are going to be majority owners of some rather large insolvent banks. It could be after a couple of months of the "stress testing" exercise, or it could be next week, but either way these banks are systemically important and thus "too big to fail." That means the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) - or some other such agency - will have to step in.

Of course, there are political barriers preventing a full-on nationalization of banks like Citi and Bank of America (nationalization = socialization = victory for Lenin). But there are also significant economic barriers to them being purchased by private capital: who'se going to buy two of the largest American banks? The Europeans? They're arguably in worse shape thanks to their exposure to certain plumetting Eastern Europe economies.

Therefore, since a public restructuring of these banks is probably going to happen in some form, that means the government is going to need bodies to replace the existing management. The last time the FDIC took over a systemically important bank (Continental Illinois in 1984), it took them 10 years to restructure the assets and finally sell the bank to private owners. And since those owners ended up being Bank of America (a delicious twist, yes?), a larger and even more interconnected bank, this could be a very secure job horizon indeed.

So polish up your resumés, unemployed bankers, because I suspect the FDIC will be hiring shortly. It's true, the bonuses will be smaller, but think about it this way: you can perform a valuable civil service by dismantling and restructuring your former banks and restoring a healthy financial sector. Besides, it could be worse.

(photo from nowpublic.com)

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