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Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Rory is our resident Russia specialist with excellent articles on geopolitics, energy security and market conditions. But, in addition to these big, sexy topics there's one issue that is a serious concern to Russians and the future of their country: demographics.
Not only has the population been shrinking since about 1992, but a recent study suggests that the population is getting older faster. In addition, high levels of suicide and abortion (not to mention alcoholism, violent crime...) have prompted some to suggest that Russians have lost faith in their system - a finger is pointed at Putin.
Is that the best explanation? I know that I would be thoroughly discouraged if I lived in today's Russia, but there are plenty of places in the world where your future prospects are just as poor as under the Putinocracy that still have high population growth rates.
Russia's population growth is -0.474%. For a country of what is now 140 million people, that's a decline of over 660,000 per year. For comparison, of the G7 countries, only Japan and Germany have negative population growth rates, and even then just barely. Surely we can't still attribute this to the transition from communism - that's a decade and a half ago.
What if it's just the weather? Nearby Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia all share similarly dark & dreary climates; their population growth rates are -0.632%, -0.284%, and -0.629%, respectively. Personally, a dark wintery climate seems ideal for staying inside and making babies, but what do I know? Combine this with lack of political freedoms, and it appears to be a recipe for population disaster.
Not only has the population been shrinking since about 1992, but a recent study suggests that the population is getting older faster. In addition, high levels of suicide and abortion (not to mention alcoholism, violent crime...) have prompted some to suggest that Russians have lost faith in their system - a finger is pointed at Putin.
Is that the best explanation? I know that I would be thoroughly discouraged if I lived in today's Russia, but there are plenty of places in the world where your future prospects are just as poor as under the Putinocracy that still have high population growth rates.
Russia's population growth is -0.474%. For a country of what is now 140 million people, that's a decline of over 660,000 per year. For comparison, of the G7 countries, only Japan and Germany have negative population growth rates, and even then just barely. Surely we can't still attribute this to the transition from communism - that's a decade and a half ago.
What if it's just the weather? Nearby Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia all share similarly dark & dreary climates; their population growth rates are -0.632%, -0.284%, and -0.629%, respectively. Personally, a dark wintery climate seems ideal for staying inside and making babies, but what do I know? Combine this with lack of political freedoms, and it appears to be a recipe for population disaster.
Maybe these guys just need a little sun.
(estimates courtesy of CIA World Factbook; image from arachnoid.com).
(estimates courtesy of CIA World Factbook; image from arachnoid.com).
