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In my eyes, 2008 has provided a harsh reminder of a fundamental lesson of political economy: the economy drives politics.

It may seem like an obvious point, but it is often a neglected one. Throughout the year, we've seen fascinating discussions about the rise of authoritarian states as an alternative to Western liberal democracy, the success of political party X or candidate Y, the further integration of global trade, the possibility of more comprehensive environmental treaties, and much more. But the outcome of each of these debates has been changed in important ways by the roller coaster ride that has been the economy in 2008.

Just ask some of the losers: Putin/Medvedev in Russia, government officials in China, Mr. McCain, Mr. Cameron, Mr. Chavez, the governments of Iceland, Belgium, Iran, Greece, and anyone hoping for more stringent carbon emission rules.

Or some of the winners: Messrs. Brown, Obama, Sarkozy and Keynes.

And if the economy driving politics was the big lesson of 2008, the interesting question for 2009 will be: how hard will politics push back?