Thursday, April 2, 2009

According to the FT, the final G20 communique makes the easy choices, and avoids almost all the tough ones (unless you ever really considered tax havens a sticking point). Gordon Brown is currently holding his closing press conference, putting a brave face on the meeting. Here are the preliminary details, keeping in mind that I have not read the communique yet:

-$750bn increased funding for the IMF ($500bn in new loans, $250bn creation of a new special drawing rights facility)
-$250bn in trade finance
-OECD to publish list of tax havens to "name and shame"
-Hedge funds will come under the direct supervision of national regulators

So, where do we stand? Well, the Europeans seem to be the big winners. The EU got its tax havens/hedge fund regulation, increased IMF funding and international trade support. We have no "grand bargain" on global financial regulation, but that was always as unlikely as a stimulus commitment. Sarko's showmanship seems to have worked; another successful summit for the great Summit Sarko.

I must say that the US/UK largely failed to obtain its priorities, especially a global commitment on fiscal stimulus. In his closing presser, Brown boasted of historic interest rate cuts and a global fiscal stimulus. But this was a classic summit tactic of framing actions already taken by national governments in the context of the summit consensus; when, in fact, no such consensus exists moving forward.

We will have much more to say about the G20 communique once we dive into the details. But initially, the agreement does seem pretty unremarkable, and the global fault lines appear as deep as they were heading in.

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