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Last week, I got a little ranty about China's role in torpedoing the climate change talks in Copenhagen. I've thought quite a bit about that post since, wondering if I was perhaps a bit too one-sided in my criticism.

But a first-hand, 'fly-on-the-wall' account by Mark Lynas in The Guardian affirms my suspicions that China was the primary obstacle to an international agreement to fight climate change. In fact, according to Lynas the behavior of the Chinese delegation, particularly the undiplomatic and inexcusable absence of senior officials from the critical talks, was down right Machiavellian. The Chinese strategy was two-fold: kill the deal and embarrass the US president.

It succeeded on the first measure, and time will tell whether Copenhagen will hurt Obama's presidency and global position. But it is clear that on issues from trade to climate change, the delicate US-Sino dance that prevailed during the Bush years has started to unravel amid the global crisis and first year of the Obama presidency. If the new world order is driven by a G-2, this is an ominous sign. China's 'peaceful rise' has quickly morphed into shrewd realpolitik, presaging greater tensions on the international stage between the world's two superpowers.

Despite reaching a 'meaningful' agreement late this evening, world leaders have failed to fulfill their ambitions to reach a comprehensive political framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, according to the FT.

Listening to Barack Obama's press conference, it is clear that he is leaving Copenhagen with little optimism. A legally-binding international agreement, with substantial cuts in emissions pledged, and mechanisms in place to formally verify compliance, is a long way off.

Have a nice weekend.

That's according to The Guardian, after the draft agreement world leaders will be asked to sign next week leaked. Developing countries have reportedly 'reacted furiously' to the so-called 'Danish text.'

You can read it here.

Everyone knows that the prospect of a binding international agreement to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases rests in part on the potential for ratification by the US Congress. The failure to ratify Kyoto gave the Bush administration the opening to pull out of the agreement, while the inability of the Obama administration to get a cap-and-trade bill through a Senate absorbed by the health care debate is a big reason why a 'political agreement' is being debated today in Copenhagen.

In fact, given the political capital expended by Obama in the health care fight, and heading into an election year dogged by stubbornly high unemployment, its unlikely that Senate Democrats will risk being labeled 'job-killers' in tight reelection battles.

But what if Obama could take the global lead on climate change by skirting the US Congress all together? What if he was unable to get an international agreement ratified after the Bonn summit next year, but implemented a regulatory policy that in practice reduced emissions just as much? Cap-and-trade is needed, but saving the planet is necessary, and the Obama administration might have found a way to do its a part in achieving this goal.

Today, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), an executive branch agency under the authority of the US president, issued an historic finding that carbon-dioxide emissions are a 'public threat,' which paves the way for the EPA to directly regulate emissions under the Clean Air Act. This would require neither congressional approval nor enforcement, and the finding follows the 2007 Supreme Court ruling that greenhouse gases fit the Clean Air Act's definition of air pollutants, which means that a legal challenge to the EPA's authority is all but impossible. The EPA says it will now issue technical guidelines and work with the states to implement them.

This is a really big deal in the United States, and strengthens Obama's hand in Copenhagen. For the first time in over a decade, a US president can credibly claim that he is actively fighting the emission of greenhouse gases. And until the political will forms in Congress to ratify an international, legally-binding agreement, the US president can do the dirty work of cleaning up the environment.

Who knew that the biggest headline on the first day of the conference would come out of Washington and not Copenhagen?

The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference opens today in the Danish capital, with expectations raised after progress from the US and China in announcing hard targets and the revelation that US President Obama will now attend the final days of the summit, a sign the White House believes a real political framework is achievable. We will do our best to cover the developments over the next two weeks and start by highlighting a remarkable editorial run by 56 of the world's leading newspapers this morning in support of real reform, of inspired collective action, of 'the better angels of our nature.'

You can find it in The Guardian here.

I can only speak for myself, but I endorse their message.

Dave has brought to our attention a truly frightening development in the world of frozen breakfast goods: the waffle crisis. Akin to peak oil, it threatens the very fabric of western civilization. I am hard at work on a bunker and have stockpiled enough pop-tarts to get me through the winter. God help us.

You read that correctly: there will be a shortage of Eggo breakfast waffles in the United States as the result of flooding in Georgia, the site of Kellogg's main factory.

We can likely expect a "waffle-run" on grocery stores across the country as desperate citizens attempt to stock up on this toastable breakfast item. I can only pray that no one is injured.

More seriously, Free Exchange uses this case to segue into a discussion of the disruption that global warming will cause to the world food supply - so check that out.

With no major breakthrough coming out of the APEC summit, the leaders who were in attendance, including US President Obama, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Danish PM Rasmussen (Denmark's Pacific coast is supposed to be beautiful this time of year), have declared a legally-binding deal on climate change in Copenhagen impossible. Negotiators will instead focus on forging a 'politically-binding' agreement as step one in a two-step process (with step two being the legal agreement.)

I plan on moving all my money into boat stocks tomorrow morning.

Recently declassified images of the Chukchi Sea off Barrow, Alaska show the scale of the challenge facing the Copenhagen conference in December. If you can't read the fine print, that's from July 2006 to July 2007. One year.

Following the very public differences between the US and Indian on who should shoulder the burden of the climate change fight, the US-China talks in Washington this week are a critical test of whether a real consensus can be formed ahead of Copenhagen.

-Iraq's Commission on Public Integrity has announced that it is issuing approximately 1,000 arrest-warrants for government officials on corruption-related offenses. This massive purge is said to include upwards of 53 senior officials (director-general level or above), and is largely centered around the Ministry of Trade. The trade minister, Abdul Falah Sudani, resigned on Monday ahead of a no-confidence vote in parliament. Obviously, warrants and investigations are far easier to announce than actual convictions, particularly of high-ranking officials. But I find this announcement stunning on two levels: for one, its sheer scale is incredible. Never mind the anti-corruption records of (post-sectarian conflict) developing countries; in what developed country can you find such broad accountability in government? Britain is the only country that comes to mind in recent years, and even there the current expenses scandal is defined by public shame and resignation, rather than actual corruption charges (remember, MPs never actually "broke the law"). Second, the Ministry of Trade is dominated by the Dalawi faction of Prime Minister Nuri al-Malaki; the Iraqi PM is leading a massive anti-corruption investigation centered on his own political fiefdom. That is perhaps the most remarkable aspect of all.

-How concerned should we be that Russia is currently preparing for nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula?

-Hizbollah is reportedly in talks with both the IMF and EU to safeguard Lebanon's external funding in the event of an election victory by the Shia group on June 7.

-The Economist examines the Obama Administration's first climate-change bill.

-The next big foreign target of Chinese investors is...LeBron James?

Politique
-The G20 reached deals on IMF funding, tax havens and trade finance. Bretton Woods it was not, but a productive start?
-North Korea launches an intercontinental ballistic missile (er, satellite), world condemns and an emergency security council meeting is called for Sunday at the UN.
-NATO agrees on a troop surge to Afghanistan, Rasmussen for Secretary-General.

Economia
-Mexico became the first country to seek access to the IMF's new no-strings-attached lending facility.
-The ECB cuts rates again and Trichet signals the possibility of unconventional measures to come.
-The mark-to-market rule is amended in the US, financial stocks soar.

The Rest
-In the Prem, Liverpool go top, Fab and Adebayor solidify Arsenal's hold on 4 in their return to action, while Shearer's big return to Saint James' Park is business as usual for the Magpies.
-Honda's new robotic helmet reads your mind. Matrix or Terminator?
-An Antarctic ice bridge the size of Jamaica has snapped.