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Tuesday, February 9, 2010
- Facts and Myths about Greek's sovereign debt woes: this is one of the better pieces I've seen so far.
- Michael Arghyrou and John Tsoukalas argue for the creation of a "strong" and weak" euro, both managed by the European Central Bank, as a solution to the looming sovereign debt crisis in southern Europe. (possibly gated link, sorry)
- Spillover effects: as investors are betting against the Euro and possibly forcing EU governments to make some tough decisions (see below), they are simultaneously fleeing towards the safety of the US dollar. So long as the US can continue to borrow cheaply, they are less likely to be forced to make some tough decisions about their own problems.
- What if Google was a state-owned company in the Ukraine?
- Indulge yourself and set aside 12 minutes to watch this stunning video. On as big a screen as you can find. It's almost entirely computer generated (except the person, clouds and pigeons), and makes Avatar look like an etch-a-sketch drawing.
Labels: EU, Euro, greece, sovereign debt
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
-A leadership challenge to Gordon Brown has once again thrown Labour into disarray, just as the party managed to reverse the Tory poll momentum. Who knew British politics could be so fun! (Update: he has survived, again...)
-The president of Iceland, a country on a fast-track to EU accession, has refused to sign off on legislation that would have repaid the UK and Netherlands some $5.5 bn lost in failed 'Icesave' accounts. He has instead decided to put the matter to a referendum. The move seriously jeopardizes Iceland's EU prospects and threatens to further isolate the tiny nation. The economy minister says the referendum decision has effectively put on hold both the country's IMF program and any decision to lift capital controls. Ouch.
-Argentina's president has fired the president of the central bank over his refusal to back a government plan to tap the country's $48 billion reserves to pay off $6.6 bn in debt this year. One problem: Martin Redrado says he won't go! He says the power to fire the central bank chief rests with Congress and he has no plans on going. Further, the man tapped by Fernandez de Kirchner to replace Redrado, former central bank president Mario Blejer, has declined the offer. Blejer resigned in 2002 due to government interference in the bank's independence. Argentina has finally been making progress in negotiations with defaulted creditors who refused the previous government's offer to renegotiate their portion of the $95 bn 2001 debt default, and was aiming to return to international markets this year for the first time in nearly a decade. The president's intervention does little to bolster the confidence Argentina has taken so long to recover.
Labels: central banking, emerging markets, EU, financial crisis, United Kingdom
Thursday, December 3, 2009
As explained earlier, the freespendin' ways of governments to address the economic crisis has led to some serious sovereign debt concerns for the near future. This applies to both the developing and developed economies of the world. Want to learn more? We've got you covered:
- Morgan Stanley predicts that the United Kingdom (and sterling) is in for a messy year ahead (the Telegraph)
- Deutche Bank's 2010 Outlook also predicts that sovereign debt land mines may sabotage economic recovery somewhat. I will take their four "probable scenario" forecasts with a large grain of salt, but the core point rings true: that deficit levels in some countries may prove unsustainable for the market, and that some of the most difficult economic decisions still lie ahead of us (FT Alphaville)
- Those of you who have been following the events in Dubai may have seen several references to the problems in Greece. The Financial Times summarizes the situation well, and Wolfgang Munchau describes the awkward dance being performed by the EU to deal with its fiscally irresponsible member state.
Labels: EU, greece, sovereign debt, United Kingdom