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Over the past few weeks, my occasional glances at the market reporting pages suggested that there was some positive news to be had. Markets were launching small rallies. There was a return to risky assets. The UK and Germany, among others, were turning out surprisingly positive signs of economic recovery. But upon taking a step back from the day-to-day churn of financial reporting, I have to admit I'm a bit baffled by all of this: where are these positive vibes coming from?

Although the recession probably ended (technically) in the United States sometime last summer, the global recovery - such as it is - seems remarkably fragile. Unemployment is obviously the biggest indicator. German unemployment continues to drop, but in the US the there are some 15 million unemployed, and even more who are underemployed. Nearly half of the unemployed have been off the job for 6 months or more. That's a deep hole. (More charts here)

Moreover, many of the underlying problems have not gone away. Sovereign debt concerns are still a biggy. The collapse of the Eurozone has been staved off through the promise of access to an unprecedented level of EU-backed funds for the weakest members. But most analysts agree that, as far as Greece is concerned, the can has simply been kicked down the road. Only Spain, the UK, and some Baltic states seem to be taking the necessary steps to address the underlying problems. Even there, the steps being taken should raise worry about delaying the recovery even further.

Another underlying problem is that of macroimbalances. Any movement towards re-balancing over the past two years was the result of the peculiarities of the financial crisis. We're seeing quite clearly now that the fundamental asymmetries of the global market for goods & assets have not gone anywhere. Capital flows have started returning to their pre-crisis trends. Moreover, everyone (everyone!) is talking about exporting their way out of recovery.

That is literally not possible. Where is the demand going to come from? US household wealth is low (decimated by decline in housing & job losses), consumer spending is weak, while savings will likely increase. The EU is fragile, and the best-performing country (Germany) is growing from...you guessed it: exports.

What about demand in emerging markets? The biggest, China, is currently trying to delicately apply the brakes to avoid domestic overheating and still does not have sufficient demand to offset the decline in the US/EU. Capital flows into India have slowed in recent months, which restricts their ability to fund further growth and demand. News out Japan is underwhelming.

On top of this, many of the East/Southeast Asian countries that built up their domestic currency reserves during the lead-up to the Great Recession to act as a buffer against crises will feel vindicated: they have fared relatively well. Why on earth would they change strategies now?

As noted below, the fragility of the situation is not lost on Mervyn King, head of the Bank of England. Similarly, US Federal Reserve's beige book recently described a decidedly "beige outlook" for the United States. In fact, even this morning, the estimates of US GDP growth disappointed market watchers.

The only good news I can think of is that we are not hurtling down an economic crevasse. And let's be clear: this is really REALLY good news. Catastrophe was a definite possibility a couple of months ago as observers watched the European sovereign debt problems cause the EZ to teeter on the precipice. But despite their dithering, the euro-zone economies have, for the moment, escaped the worst possible outcomes. The bank stress tests, despite widely reported weaknesses, have been met by a neutral-to-positive response. Tyler Cowen suggests that wages in Europe have been less sticky than he predicted, which seems to be prompting some signs of recovery. Another indicator of uncertainty - both for inflation and deflation - is gold. Gold is holding steady at the moment, suggesting that fear of impending doom is abated.

But if not hurtling down an economic crevasse is the best news you've got, things are still pretty grim. Taking stock of the situation from my little peephole, I have really got to ask myself: where is the recovery going to come from?

UPDATE: Some honesty from Tyler Cowen: "Macroeconomics is rarely simple... We still don't know what we are doing." Read the rest.

Amy Elizabeth Taylor (born 11 June 1979 in Canberra, Australia) is a former football (soccer) player and media personality in Australia.



Taylor was a member of the Australian women's national team, known as "The Matildas", playing as a defender in over twenty international matches. At club level, she played nearly 100 games for the Canberra Eclipse in the now defunct Australian Women's National Soccer League, and played professionally for Hampton Roads Piranhas in the United States W-League.



Talyor became the face of Australian women's football in 2000 when she appeared on the cover of nude calendar featuring current Matilda's players, designed to lift the profile of the women's game and raise funds to support the national team's activities.



She was first selected to the Australian women's national team in 1997, at the age of 17—just six years after she began playing the sport. Known as a tenacious defender and aggressive tackler, Taylor's style of play contributed to a number of injuries which ultimately ended her football career. After two reconstructive surgeries on her ankles following the Matildas' 2004 season, she retired from competitive football.



Her appearance on the Matilda's calendar led to appearances in various magazines and print ads as a model. She joined WIN Television in Australia as a presenter on a fishing program called Fishing Australia. She further became the sports presenter for WIN News, becoming one of WIN's most popular personalities.



In 2008, Taylor co-hosted the first series of football-reality television program Football Superstar on pay TV channel FOX8, but did not return for the second series in 2009.



While continuing her role on WIN News, she is also currently a sideline commentator for ABC's telecast of the W-League national women's competition.



Source : Wikipedia.org

Si lo tuyo es la sencillez sin demasiadas complicaciones, pero también lo es lucir bien y buscas el peinado para novia para tu próxima boda, lo importante es encontrar ese peinado que sea tan sencillo como quieres y que resulte un realce del bonito atuendo nupcial que habrás elegido para ese gran día. En este post, te traemos imágenes de peinados para novia sencillos y fáciles, que son también peinados preciosos.
La mayoría de estos peinados son de apenas atar el cabello, por lo que resultan ideales si esetás pensando llevar un gancho sujetador de cabello especial o flores y otros accesorios que son ideales para la temporada veraniega si te casas en primavera verano, pero ya sabes que igual los accesorios vienen bien si te casas en otoño invierno. Luego de ver estas propuestas de peinados para novia sencillos y fáciles, estamos seguras que habrás encontrado tu peinado de novia.

Las invitaciones de boda pueden ser todo un presupuesto en la organización de una boda, principalmente con un número muy alto de invitados. Hace poco realizamos un artículo comentándole las opciones que se tienen para realizar invitaciones gratuitas, pero requieren tiempo en su mayoría. Si no se dispone de ese tiempo siempre hay invitaciones baratas.
Tenemos tiendas on line que dan precios muy económicos, encontrando modelos de menos de 1 euro. Por supuesto que suelen tratarse de los más clásicos y sencillos, pero son una opción si el presupuesto aprieta. De todas formas las invitaciones, sean modernas y costosas o baratas siempre cumplen su cometido, que es informar sobre la boda a nuestro invitado.

Le dejamos una galería con invitaciones de boda baratas: